Filing Flows › Magnera (MAGN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Magnera (MAGN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($15.34 a share) would return about 18% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $12.92 a share (10% against today's $11.80). It already carries 6.5× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 4.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.92× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $15.34 | today's $11.80 plus 30% |
| × shares | 35.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $551M | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.9B | |
| − Cash | $280M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.2B | 8.7× EBITDA of $250M |
| Fees | $43.4M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $840M | 38% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.5B | $270M | $105M | $74.8M | $1.3B |
| Year 2 | $3.8B | $288M | $99.5M | $96.8M | $1.2B |
| Year 3 | $4.0B | $304M | $92.1M | $119M | $1.1B |
| Year 4 | $4.2B | $317M | $82.9M | $142M | $942M |
| Year 5 | $4.3B | $327M | $72.0M | $163M | $779M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.7B | |
| − Debt left | $779M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.9B | |
| Money multiple | 2.25× | on $840M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 17.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $11.80; the IRR reaches 20% at $12.92 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $12.98 | 20.0% |
| 20% | $14.16 | 18.9% |
| 30% | $15.34 | 17.6% |
| 40% | $16.52 | 16.4% |
| 50% | $17.70 | 15.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $250M | 7.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $187M | |
| Capital spending | $59.0M | |
| Debt | $1.9B | |
| Cash | $280M | |
| Share price | $11.80 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Magnera would cost about $15.63 a share, $561M for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $14.16 | $508M |
| Median | 32.5% | $15.63 | $561M |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $17.91 | $643M |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.92× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Magnera's latest quarter
Magnera, Q3 FY26: revenue $857M (+2% year over year), operating margin 2.6%, net loss $20.0M, operating cash flow −$13.0M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Magnera being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Magnera?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($15.34 a share) would return about 18% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $12.92 a share (10% against today's $11.80). It already carries 6.5× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Magnera cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Magnera would cost about $15.63 a share, $561M for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.