Filing Flows › Manhattan Associates (MANH) › Takeover & LBO
Is Manhattan Associates (MANH) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($309.65 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $145.32 a share (−39% against today's $238.19). Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.47× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $309.65 | today's $238.19 plus 30% |
| × shares | 58.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $18.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $186M | |
| = Enterprise value | $18.0B | 63.0× EBITDA of $286M |
| Fees | $360M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $16.8B | 91% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.2B | $309M | $120M | $120M | $1.5B |
| Year 2 | $1.3B | $330M | $111M | $143M | $1.3B |
| Year 3 | $1.4B | $348M | $100M | $165M | $1.1B |
| Year 4 | $1.5B | $362M | $87.5M | $187M | $957M |
| Year 5 | $1.5B | $373M | $73.2M | $207M | $749M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 48.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $18.0B | |
| − Debt left | $749M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $17.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.03× | on $16.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $238.19; the IRR reaches 20% at $145.32 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $262.01 | 4.4% |
| 20% | $285.83 | 2.4% |
| 30% | $309.65 | 0.6% |
| 40% | $333.47 | −1.1% |
| 50% | $357.28 | −2.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $286M | 24.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $6.7M | |
| Capital spending | $15.7M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $186M | |
| Share price | $238.19 | on Oct 23, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Manhattan Associates would cost about $309.65 a share, $18.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $266.77 | $15.7B |
| Median | 30% | $309.65 | $18.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $312.03 | $18.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.47× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Manhattan Associates' latest quarter
Manhattan Associates, Q3 2026: revenue $306M (+11% year over year), operating margin 26.5%, net earnings $61.3M, operating cash flow $68.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Manhattan Associates being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Manhattan Associates?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($309.65 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $145.32 a share (−39% against today's $238.19).
What would a takeover of Manhattan Associates cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Manhattan Associates would cost about $309.65 a share, $18.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.