Filing Flows › Mattel (MAT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Mattel (MAT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($20.05 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $14.50 a share (−6% against today's $15.42). Historically 4.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.97× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $20.05 | today's $15.42 plus 30% |
| × shares | 286.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.3B | |
| − Cash | $541M | |
| = Enterprise value | $7.5B | 10.6× EBITDA of $711M |
| Fees | $151M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.8B | 49% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.9B | $756M | $299M | $214M | $3.7B |
| Year 2 | $6.2B | $798M | $283M | $258M | $3.4B |
| Year 3 | $6.5B | $835M | $263M | $304M | $3.1B |
| Year 4 | $6.8B | $867M | $240M | $349M | $2.8B |
| Year 5 | $7.0B | $893M | $213M | $394M | $2.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $7.8B | |
| − Debt left | $2.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.43× | on $3.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 7.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $15.42; the IRR reaches 20% at $14.50 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $16.96 | 13.5% |
| 20% | $18.50 | 10.2% |
| 30% | $20.05 | 7.5% |
| 40% | $21.59 | 5.1% |
| 50% | $23.13 | 3.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $711M | 12.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $185M | |
| Capital spending | $161M | |
| Debt | $2.3B | |
| Cash | $541M | |
| Share price | $15.42 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 14% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Mattel would cost about $20.43 a share, $5.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $18.50 | $5.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $20.43 | $5.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $23.41 | $6.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.97× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Mattel's latest quarter
Mattel, Q3 2026: revenue $1.8B (+4% year over year), operating margin 26.4%, net earnings $354M, operating cash flow $88.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Mattel being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Mattel?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($20.05 a share) would return about 7% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $14.50 a share (−6% against today's $15.42).
What would a takeover of Mattel cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Mattel would cost about $20.43 a share, $5.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.