Filing Flows › McDonald's (MCD) › Takeover & LBO
Is McDonald's (MCD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($361.45 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $180.51 a share (−35% against today's $278.04). At $295.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average). Latest signal (2026-10-28): Wendy's Surges 14% on Trian-Led $1.4B Take-Private Offer; McDonald's Edges Higher, Yum Brands Stays Put.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $361.45 | today's $278.04 plus 30% |
| × shares | 708.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $256.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $40.8B | |
| − Cash | $1.2B | |
| = Enterprise value | $295.6B | 21.9× EBITDA of $13.5B |
| Fees | $5.9B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $74.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $227.2B | 75% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $29.4B | $14.3B | $5.7B | $3.1B | $71.2B |
| Year 2 | $30.9B | $15.0B | $5.4B | $3.7B | $67.5B |
| Year 3 | $32.2B | $15.7B | $5.2B | $4.3B | $63.3B |
| Year 4 | $33.4B | $16.2B | $4.8B | $4.9B | $58.4B |
| Year 5 | $34.4B | $16.7B | $4.5B | $5.4B | $53.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $293.1B | |
| − Debt left | $53.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $240.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.06× | on $227.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $278.04; the IRR reaches 20% at $180.51 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $305.84 | 5.1% |
| 20% | $333.65 | 3.0% |
| 30% | $361.45 | 1.1% |
| 40% | $389.26 | −0.6% |
| 50% | $417.06 | −2.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $27.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $13.5B | 48.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $464M | |
| Capital spending | $3.5B | |
| Debt | $40.8B | |
| Cash | $1.2B | |
| Share price | $278.04 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 5.8% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, McDonald's would cost about $368.40 a share, $260.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $333.65 | $236.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $368.40 | $260.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $422.06 | $298.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-10-28 · news · Wendy's Surges 14% on Trian-Led $1.4B Take-Private Offer; McDonald's Edges Higher, Yum Brands Stays Put
McDonald's latest quarter
McDonald's, Q3 2026: revenue $7.2B (+1% year over year), operating margin 50.2%, net earnings $2.5B, operating cash flow $3.0B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is McDonald's being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-10-28: Wendy's Surges 14% on Trian-Led $1.4B Take-Private Offer; McDonald's Edges Higher, Yum Brands Stays Put. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy McDonald's?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($361.45 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $180.51 a share (−35% against today's $278.04). At $295.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of McDonald's cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, McDonald's would cost about $368.40 a share, $260.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.