Filing Flows › Mondelez International (MDLZ) › Takeover & LBO
Is Mondelez International (MDLZ) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($87.15 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $46.23 a share (−31% against today's $67.03). At $132.1B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 1.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.29× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $87.15 | today's $67.03 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,280.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $111.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $22.2B | |
| − Cash | $1.7B | |
| + Other claims | $51.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $132.1B | 19.3× EBITDA of $6.9B |
| Fees | $2.6B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $37.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $97.0B | 72% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $42.3B | $7.3B | $2.9B | $2.0B | $35.7B |
| Year 2 | $44.5B | $7.6B | $2.7B | $2.4B | $33.3B |
| Year 3 | $46.5B | $8.0B | $2.5B | $2.8B | $30.5B |
| Year 4 | $48.2B | $8.3B | $2.3B | $3.1B | $27.4B |
| Year 5 | $49.7B | $8.5B | $2.1B | $3.5B | $23.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $132.5B | |
| − Debt left | $23.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $108.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.12× | on $97.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $67.03; the IRR reaches 20% at $46.23 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $73.74 | 6.4% |
| 20% | $80.44 | 4.2% |
| 30% | $87.15 | 2.3% |
| 40% | $93.85 | 0.5% |
| 50% | $100.55 | −1.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $39.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $6.9B | 17.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.4B | |
| Capital spending | $1.3B | |
| Debt | $22.2B | |
| Cash | $1.7B | |
| Share price | $67.03 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Mondelez International would cost about $88.82 a share, $113.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $80.44 | $103.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $88.82 | $113.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $101.76 | $130.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.29× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Mondelez International's latest quarter
Mondelez International, Q3 2026: revenue $10.0B (+2% year over year), operating margin 17.6%, net earnings $1.3B, operating cash flow $1.3B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Mondelez International being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Mondelez International?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($87.15 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $46.23 a share (−31% against today's $67.03). At $132.1B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Mondelez International cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Mondelez International would cost about $88.82 a share, $113.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.