Filing Flows › Medpace Holdings (MEDP) › Takeover & LBO
Is Medpace Holdings (MEDP) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($847.61 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $847.61 | today's $652.01 plus 30% |
| × shares | 28.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $24.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $705M | |
| = Enterprise value | $23.3B | 36.8× EBITDA of $634M |
| Fees | $467M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $20.3B | 85% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.1B | $685M | $267M | $268M | $3.2B |
| Year 2 | $3.3B | $731M | $246M | $321M | $2.9B |
| Year 3 | $3.5B | $772M | $222M | $374M | $2.5B |
| Year 4 | $3.6B | $805M | $193M | $426M | $2.1B |
| Year 5 | $3.7B | $829M | $161M | $475M | $1.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 28.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $23.2B | |
| − Debt left | $1.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $21.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.06× | on $20.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $652.01.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $717.21 | 5.5% |
| 20% | $782.41 | 3.2% |
| 30% | $847.61 | 1.2% |
| 40% | $912.81 | −0.5% |
| 50% | $978.01 | −2.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $634M | 22.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $27.3M | |
| Capital spending | $55.4M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $705M | |
| Share price | $652.01 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 17% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Medpace Holdings would cost about $912.81 a share, $25.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $747.86 | $21.2B |
| Median | 40% | $912.81 | $25.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $1,044.52 | $29.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Medpace Holdings' latest quarter
Medpace Holdings, Q3 2026: revenue $716M (+8% year over year), operating margin 23.1%, net earnings $137M, operating cash flow $217M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Medpace Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Medpace Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($847.61 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Medpace Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Medpace Holdings would cost about $912.81 a share, $25.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.