Filing Flows › Meta Platforms (META) › Takeover & LBO
Is Meta Platforms (META) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($801.20 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $402.36 a share (−35% against today's $616.31). At $2.06T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.35× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $801.20 | today's $616.31 plus 30% |
| × shares | 2,573.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.06T | |
| + Debt refinanced | $83.7B | |
| − Cash | $82.4B | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.06T | 19.8× EBITDA of $104.3B |
| Fees | $41.3B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $573.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.53T | 73% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $260.9B | $112.6B | $43.9B | −$51.0B | $624.6B |
| Year 2 | $278.5B | $120.2B | $47.8B | −$55.0B | $679.6B |
| Year 3 | $293.9B | $126.9B | $52.0B | −$59.0B | $738.6B |
| Year 4 | $306.4B | $132.3B | $56.5B | −$63.2B | $801.9B |
| Year 5 | $315.5B | $136.2B | $61.3B | −$67.5B | $869.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.07T | |
| − Debt left | $869.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.20T | |
| Money multiple | 0.79× | on $1.53T put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −4.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $616.31; the IRR reaches 20% at $402.36 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $677.94 | −0.1% |
| 20% | $739.57 | −2.5% |
| 30% | $801.20 | −4.7% |
| 40% | $862.83 | −6.6% |
| 50% | $924.46 | −8.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $241.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $104.3B | 43.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $24.9B | |
| Capital spending | $104.4B | |
| Debt | $83.7B | |
| Cash | $82.4B | |
| Share price | $616.31 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Meta Platforms would cost about $801.20 a share, $2.06T for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $690.27 | $1.78T |
| Median | 30% | $801.20 | $2.06T |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $807.37 | $2.08T |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.35× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Meta Platforms' latest quarter
Meta Platforms, Q3 2026: revenue $64.6B (+26% year over year), operating margin 20.1%, net earnings $9.9B, operating cash flow $32.8B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Meta Platforms being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Meta Platforms?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($801.20 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $402.36 a share (−35% against today's $616.31). At $2.06T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Meta Platforms cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Meta Platforms would cost about $801.20 a share, $2.06T for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.