Filing Flows › MGM Resorts International (MGM) › Takeover & LBO
Is MGM Resorts International (MGM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($42.30 a share) would return about 9% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $31.10 a share (−4% against today's $32.54). Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average). Latest signal (2026-10-28): Barry Diller and People Inc. cap MGM Resorts stake at 30% after takeover bid ends.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $42.30 | today's $32.54 plus 30% |
| × shares | 252.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $10.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.7B | |
| − Cash | $2.4B | |
| + Other claims | $864M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $14.8B | 6.3× EBITDA of $2.3B |
| Fees | $296M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $9.6B | 4.1× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $5.5B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $18.2B | $2.4B | $736M | $626M | $9.0B |
| Year 2 | $18.7B | $2.5B | $688M | $700M | $8.3B |
| Year 3 | $19.2B | $2.5B | $634M | $782M | $7.5B |
| Year 4 | $19.7B | $2.6B | $575M | $871M | $6.6B |
| Year 5 | $20.3B | $2.7B | $508M | $969M | $5.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $14.2B | |
| − Debt left | $5.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $8.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.55× | on $5.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 9.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $32.54; the IRR reaches 20% at $31.10 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $35.79 | 15.4% |
| 20% | $39.05 | 12.3% |
| 30% | $42.30 | 9.2% |
| 40% | $45.56 | 6.0% |
| 50% | $48.81 | 2.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $17.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.3B | 13.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.1B | |
| Capital spending | $914M | |
| Debt | $5.7B | |
| Cash | $2.4B | |
| Share price | $32.54 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 2.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, MGM Resorts International would cost about $43.12 a share, $10.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $39.05 | $9.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $43.12 | $10.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $49.40 | $12.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-10-28 · news · Barry Diller and People Inc. cap MGM Resorts stake at 30% after takeover bid ends
- 2026-10-28 · news · MGM Resorts amends voting agreement after People ends takeover bid
MGM Resorts International's latest quarter
MGM Resorts International, Q3 2026: revenue $4.2B (-0.9% year over year), operating margin 2.8%, net earnings $39.2M, operating cash flow $532M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is MGM Resorts International being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-10-28: Barry Diller and People Inc. cap MGM Resorts stake at 30% after takeover bid ends. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy MGM Resorts International?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($42.30 a share) would return about 9% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $31.10 a share (−4% against today's $32.54).
What would a takeover of MGM Resorts International cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, MGM Resorts International would cost about $43.12 a share, $10.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.