Filing Flows › Magnite (MGNI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Magnite (MGNI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($33.02 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $18.07 a share (−29% against today's $25.40). Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $33.02 | today's $25.40 plus 30% |
| × shares | 150.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $359M | |
| − Cash | $333M | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.0B | 25.5× EBITDA of $196M |
| Fees | $100M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.0B | 79% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $828M | $212M | $82.6M | $44.4M | $1.0B |
| Year 2 | $884M | $226M | $79.2M | $56.3M | $979M |
| Year 3 | $933M | $239M | $74.9M | $68.0M | $911M |
| Year 4 | $972M | $249M | $69.7M | $79.4M | $831M |
| Year 5 | $1.0B | $256M | $63.6M | $90.1M | $741M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 19.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.0B | |
| − Debt left | $741M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.07× | on $4.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $25.40; the IRR reaches 20% at $18.07 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $27.94 | 5.8% |
| 20% | $30.48 | 3.4% |
| 30% | $33.02 | 1.3% |
| 40% | $35.56 | −0.6% |
| 50% | $38.10 | −2.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $767M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $196M | 25.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $54.8M | |
| Capital spending | $65.2M | |
| Debt | $359M | |
| Cash | $333M | |
| Share price | $25.40 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Magnite would cost about $33.02 a share, $5.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $28.45 | $4.3B |
| Median | 30% | $33.02 | $5.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $33.27 | $5.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.61× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Magnite's latest quarter
Magnite, Q3 2026: revenue $204M (+14% year over year), operating margin 24.8%, net earnings $34.0M, operating cash flow $103M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Magnite being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Magnite?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($33.02 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $18.07 a share (−29% against today's $25.40).
What would a takeover of Magnite cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Magnite would cost about $33.02 a share, $5.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.