Filing Flows › Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) › Takeover & LBO
Is Magnolia Oil & Gas (MGY) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($34.45 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $24.38 a share (−8% against today's $26.50). Historically 4.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.89× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $34.45 | today's $26.50 plus 30% |
| × shares | 230.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.9B | |
| − Cash | $17.5M | |
| = Enterprise value | $9.9B | 8.9× EBITDA of $1.1B |
| Fees | $197M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.0B | 39% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.8B | $1.2B | $466M | $111M | $6.0B |
| Year 2 | $1.9B | $1.3B | $458M | $152M | $5.8B |
| Year 3 | $2.0B | $1.3B | $446M | $192M | $5.6B |
| Year 4 | $2.1B | $1.4B | $431M | $230M | $5.4B |
| Year 5 | $2.2B | $1.4B | $414M | $263M | $5.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $10.5B | |
| − Debt left | $5.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.35× | on $4.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 6.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $26.50; the IRR reaches 20% at $24.38 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $29.15 | 13.3% |
| 20% | $31.80 | 9.7% |
| 30% | $34.45 | 6.1% |
| 40% | $37.10 | 3.1% |
| 50% | $39.75 | 0.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.1B | 66.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $492M | |
| Capital spending | $523M | |
| Debt | $1.9B | |
| Cash | $17.5M | |
| Share price | $26.50 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Magnolia Oil & Gas would cost about $35.11 a share, $8.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $31.80 | $7.3B |
| Median | 32.5% | $35.11 | $8.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $40.23 | $9.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.89× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Magnolia Oil & Gas' latest quarter
Magnolia Oil & Gas, Q3 2026: revenue $514M (+58% year over year), operating margin 30.1%, net earnings $80.5M, operating cash flow $369M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Magnolia Oil & Gas being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Magnolia Oil & Gas?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($34.45 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $24.38 a share (−8% against today's $26.50).
What would a takeover of Magnolia Oil & Gas cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Magnolia Oil & Gas would cost about $35.11 a share, $8.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.