Filing Flows › MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) › Takeover & LBO
Is MarketAxess Holdings (MKTX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($214.03 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 4.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.87× the average). Latest signal (2026-09-18): Merger proxy (DEFM14A).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $214.03 | today's $164.64 plus 30% |
| × shares | 35.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $246M | |
| = Enterprise value | $7.3B | 17.0× EBITDA of $430M |
| Fees | $146M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.1B | 68% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $904M | $447M | $181M | $201M | $2.2B |
| Year 2 | $938M | $464M | $166M | $224M | $1.9B |
| Year 3 | $970M | $480M | $148M | $248M | $1.7B |
| Year 4 | $1.0B | $495M | $130M | $273M | $1.4B |
| Year 5 | $1.0B | $510M | $109M | $299M | $1.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 12.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $6.6B | |
| − Debt left | $1.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.08× | on $5.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $164.64.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $181.10 | 7.0% |
| 20% | $197.57 | 4.0% |
| 30% | $214.03 | 1.5% |
| 40% | $230.50 | −0.7% |
| 50% | $246.96 | −2.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $870M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $430M | 49.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $77.8M | |
| Capital spending | $6.0M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $246M | |
| Share price | $164.64 | on Oct 16, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, MarketAxess Holdings would cost about $189.17 a share, $6.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 9.5% | $180.28 | $6.4B |
| Median | 14.9% | $189.17 | $6.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 33.6% | $219.96 | $7.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.87× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-09-18 · DEFM14A · Merger proxy (DEFM14A)
- 2026-09-04 · deal · Agreed sale to its terms, the at $175.0 cash a share · pending
MarketAxess Holdings' latest quarter
MarketAxess Holdings, Q3 2026: revenue $210M (+0.8% year over year), operating margin 35.4%, net earnings $54.0M, operating cash flow $247M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is MarketAxess Holdings being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-09-18: Merger proxy (DEFM14A). A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy MarketAxess Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($214.03 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of MarketAxess Holdings cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, MarketAxess Holdings would cost about $189.17 a share, $6.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.