Filing Flows › Mannkind (MNKD) › Takeover & LBO
Is Mannkind (MNKD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($4.28 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $1.74 a share (−47% against today's $3.29). It already carries 6.9× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 6.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.32× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $4.28 | today's $3.29 plus 30% |
| × shares | 309.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $319M | |
| − Cash | $111M | |
| = Enterprise value | $1.5B | 50.9× EBITDA of $30.1M |
| Fees | $30.6M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $165M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.4B | 89% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $425M | $32.5M | $12.6M | $5.8M | $160M |
| Year 2 | $454M | $34.7M | $12.2M | $8.0M | $152M |
| Year 3 | $479M | $36.6M | $11.6M | $10.2M | $141M |
| Year 4 | $499M | $38.1M | $10.8M | $12.3M | $129M |
| Year 5 | $514M | $39.3M | $9.9M | $14.3M | $115M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 40.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.6B | |
| − Debt left | $115M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.5B | |
| Money multiple | 1.06× | on $1.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $3.29; the IRR reaches 20% at $1.74 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $3.62 | 4.6% |
| 20% | $3.95 | 2.8% |
| 30% | $4.28 | 1.3% |
| 40% | $4.61 | −0.2% |
| 50% | $4.94 | −1.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $394M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $30.1M | 7.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $20.9M | |
| Capital spending | $10.1M | |
| Debt | $319M | |
| Cash | $111M | |
| Share price | $3.29 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Mannkind would cost about $4.44 a share, $1.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $4.01 | $1.2B |
| Median | 35% | $4.44 | $1.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $4.77 | $1.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.32× the average). Its figures put it in decile 9 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Mannkind's latest quarter
Mannkind, Q3 2026: revenue $102M (+24% year over year), operating margin -2.1%, net loss $23.2M, operating cash flow −$34.5M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Mannkind being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Mannkind?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($4.28 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $1.74 a share (−47% against today's $3.29). It already carries 6.9× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Mannkind cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Mannkind would cost about $4.44 a share, $1.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.