Filing Flows › Monster Beverage (MNST) › Takeover & LBO
Is Monster Beverage (MNST) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($59.97 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $115.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $59.97 | today's $46.13 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,980.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $118.7B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $374M | |
| − Cash | $3.7B | |
| = Enterprise value | $115.4B | 40.4× EBITDA of $2.9B |
| Fees | $2.3B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $15.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $102.0B | 87% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $10.4B | $3.1B | $1.2B | $1.3B | $14.4B |
| Year 2 | $11.1B | $3.3B | $1.1B | $1.5B | $13.0B |
| Year 3 | $11.7B | $3.5B | $991M | $1.7B | $11.2B |
| Year 4 | $12.2B | $3.6B | $860M | $1.9B | $9.3B |
| Year 5 | $12.5B | $3.7B | $712M | $2.1B | $7.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 30.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $114.9B | |
| − Debt left | $7.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $107.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.06× | on $102.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $46.13.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $50.74 | 5.3% |
| 20% | $55.36 | 3.1% |
| 30% | $59.97 | 1.1% |
| 40% | $64.58 | −0.6% |
| 50% | $69.20 | −2.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $9.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.9B | 29.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $122M | |
| Capital spending | $129M | |
| Debt | $374M | |
| Cash | $3.7B | |
| Share price | $46.13 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Monster Beverage would cost about $61.12 a share, $121.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $55.36 | $109.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $61.12 | $121.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $70.03 | $138.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.49× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Monster Beverage's latest quarter
Monster Beverage, Q3 2026: revenue $2.6B (+17% year over year), operating margin 28.0%, net earnings $568M, operating cash flow $557M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Monster Beverage being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Monster Beverage?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($59.97 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $115.4B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Monster Beverage cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Monster Beverage would cost about $61.12 a share, $121.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.