Filing Flows › Altria Group (MO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Altria Group (MO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($100.85 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $54.40 a share (−30% against today's $77.58). At $189.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.55× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $100.85 | today's $77.58 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,669.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $168.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $24.1B | |
| − Cash | $2.7B | |
| + Other claims | $52.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $189.7B | 16.8× EBITDA of $11.3B |
| Fees | $3.8B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $62.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $131.5B | 68% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $23.6B | $11.3B | $4.7B | $4.7B | $57.3B |
| Year 2 | $23.9B | $11.5B | $4.4B | $5.1B | $52.2B |
| Year 3 | $24.3B | $11.7B | $4.0B | $5.5B | $46.7B |
| Year 4 | $24.9B | $11.9B | $3.6B | $6.0B | $40.7B |
| Year 5 | $25.6B | $12.3B | $3.1B | $6.6B | $34.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $164.4B | |
| − Debt left | $34.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $130.4B | |
| Money multiple | 0.99× | on $131.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $77.58; the IRR reaches 20% at $54.40 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $85.34 | 4.4% |
| 20% | $93.10 | 2.0% |
| 30% | $100.85 | −0.2% |
| 40% | $108.61 | −2.1% |
| 50% | $116.37 | −3.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $23.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $11.3B | 48.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $226M | |
| Capital spending | $351M | |
| Debt | $24.1B | |
| Cash | $2.7B | |
| Share price | $77.58 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 0.5% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Altria Group would cost about $102.79 a share, $171.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $93.10 | $155.4B |
| Median | 32.5% | $102.79 | $171.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $117.77 | $196.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.55× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Altria Group's latest quarter
Altria Group, Q3 2026: revenue $6.1B (+1% year over year), operating margin 54.0%, net earnings $2.5B, operating cash flow $3.1B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Altria Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Altria Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($100.85 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $54.40 a share (−30% against today's $77.58). At $189.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Altria Group cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Altria Group would cost about $102.79 a share, $171.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.