Filing Flows › Modine Manufacturing (MOD) › Takeover & LBO
Is Modine Manufacturing (MOD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($168.69 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $90.21 a share (−30% against today's $129.76). Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.6× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $168.69 | today's $129.76 plus 30% |
| × shares | 53.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $9.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $726M | |
| − Cash | $151M | |
| + Other claims | $7.8M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $9.7B | 21.6× EBITDA of $449M |
| Fees | $194M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $7.4B | 75% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.9B | $485M | $189M | $18.8M | $2.4B |
| Year 2 | $4.2B | $517M | $187M | $34.5M | $2.4B |
| Year 3 | $4.4B | $546M | $185M | $50.4M | $2.4B |
| Year 4 | $4.6B | $569M | $181M | $65.9M | $2.3B |
| Year 5 | $4.7B | $586M | $176M | $80.8M | $2.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $9.9B | |
| − Debt left | $2.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $7.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.04× | on $7.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $129.76; the IRR reaches 20% at $90.21 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $142.74 | 5.1% |
| 20% | $155.71 | 2.8% |
| 30% | $168.69 | 0.7% |
| 40% | $181.66 | −1.1% |
| 50% | $194.64 | −2.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $449M | 12.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $83.0M | |
| Capital spending | $172M | |
| Debt | $726M | |
| Cash | $151M | |
| Share price | $129.76 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Modine Manufacturing would cost about $171.93 a share, $9.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $155.71 | $8.4B |
| Median | 32.5% | $171.93 | $9.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $196.98 | $10.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.6× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Modine Manufacturing's latest quarter
Modine Manufacturing, Q2 FY27: revenue $994M (+35% year over year), operating margin 9.8%, net earnings $30.3M, operating cash flow −$98.5M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Modine Manufacturing being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Modine Manufacturing?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($168.69 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $90.21 a share (−30% against today's $129.76).
What would a takeover of Modine Manufacturing cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Modine Manufacturing would cost about $171.93 a share, $9.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.