Filing Flows › Moog (MOG-A) › Takeover & LBO
Is Moog (MOG-A) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($455.87 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $257.71 a share (−27% against today's $350.67). Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $455.87 | today's $350.67 plus 30% |
| × shares | 32.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $14.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $908M | |
| − Cash | $66.8M | |
| = Enterprise value | $15.5B | 22.4× EBITDA of $691M |
| Fees | $309M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $12.0B | 76% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.7B | $746M | $291M | $229M | $3.6B |
| Year 2 | $5.0B | $797M | $273M | $282M | $3.3B |
| Year 3 | $5.3B | $840M | $252M | $335M | $3.0B |
| Year 4 | $5.5B | $876M | $226M | $387M | $2.6B |
| Year 5 | $5.6B | $902M | $196M | $437M | $2.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $15.8B | |
| − Debt left | $2.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $13.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.14× | on $12.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $350.67; the IRR reaches 20% at $257.71 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $385.74 | 7.1% |
| 20% | $420.80 | 4.8% |
| 30% | $455.87 | 2.7% |
| 40% | $490.94 | 0.8% |
| 50% | $526.00 | −0.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $691M | 16.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $116M | |
| Capital spending | $135M | |
| Debt | $908M | |
| Cash | $66.8M | |
| Share price | $350.67 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 14% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Moog would cost about $490.94 a share, $15.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $402.22 | $12.9B |
| Median | 40% | $490.94 | $15.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $561.77 | $18.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Moog's latest quarter
Moog, Q3 FY26: revenue $1.1B (+15% year over year), operating margin 15.8%, net earnings $152M, operating cash flow $160M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Moog being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Moog?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($455.87 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $257.71 a share (−27% against today's $350.67).
What would a takeover of Moog cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Moog would cost about $490.94 a share, $15.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.