Filing Flows › Mercury Systems (MRCY) › Stock forecast & fair value
Mercury Systems (MRCY) stock forecast and fair value
Mercury Systems (MRCY) trades at $75.04. 11 analysts' median price target is $110.00 (+47%), from $78.00 to $130.00. Across 18 valuation methods the middle fair value is $24.47 (-67%); the DCF says $6.13.
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DCF — Monte Carlo 10th–90th percentile | −$19.60 | $6.13 | $28.29 | -92% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers | $19.47 | $26.55 | $38.46 | -65% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, weighted | $19.31 | $29.39 | $35.96 | -61% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, matched | $18.68 | $22.59 | $26.96 | -70% |
| EV/Sales vs peers | $34.65 | $84.04 | $191.50 | +12% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, weighted | $85.60 | $192.05 | $331.51 | +156% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, matched | $19.37 | $24.47 | $53.67 | -67% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, growth & margin adjusted | $24.06 | $43.62 | $81.89 | -42% |
| Residual income | $14.41 | $14.93 | $15.49 | -80% |
| Analysts' price targets | $78.00 | $109.00 | $130.00 | +45% |
Mercury Systems' latest quarter
Mercury Systems, Q4 FY26: revenue $290M (+6% year over year), operating margin 5.0%, net earnings $798K, operating cash flow $42.2M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for MRCY stock?
The median of 11 analysts' 12-month targets is $110.00, +47% from $75.04; the range is $78.00 to $130.00. The average rating is buy.
What is Mercury Systems' fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $1.84 and $192.05, with a middle value of $24.47 against a price of $75.04. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Mercury Systems usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 75% of the quarters on record.
Is MRCY stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.