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Merck (MRK) guidance and outlook
Merck (MRK) raised some and lowered other parts of its guidance on Oct 29, 2026: EPS $2.77–$2.82 for FY2026; Revenue $66.8B–$67.3B for FY2026; Revenue +1% for FY2026; Tax rate 32%–33% for FY2026. Merck's 10-Q filed Nov 4, 2026 makes 24 forward-looking statements, 4 of them new and 12 no longer said since the filing before.
Guidance and outlook
Latest guidance
| Metric | Period | Range | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | FY2026 | $66.8B–$67.3B | new |
| EPS | FY2026 | $2.77–$2.82 | raised |
| Revenue | FY2026 | $66.8B–$67.3B | raised |
| Revenue | FY2026 | +1% | reaffirmed |
| Tax rate | FY2026 | 32%–33% | lowered |
From the earnings release filed Oct 29, 2026 (8-K on EDGAR).
Forward-looking statements, 10-Q filed Nov 4, 2026
- new · The Company recorded a charge to Research and development expenses of $400 million in the third quarter and first nine months of 2026, or $0.12 per share, for the upfront payment, which is expected to be paid in the fourth quarter of 2026.
- new · Furthermore, the Company expects that Keytruda (pembrolizumab) will be selected in 2027 for government price setting, which
- The Company anticipates all of these actions and additional actions in the future will continue to negatively affect sales and profits.
- The Company is providing Januvia , Janumet and Janumet XR through a direct-to-patient program at affordable prices for eligible patients in the U.S., and will be expanding the program in the future to include Lipfendra (enlicitide).
- new · As a result of the Company’s participation in the GENEROUS Model, it expects to be exempt from the Global Benchmark for Efficient Drug Pricing (GLOBE) Model through December 2030.
- Additionally, the Company agreed that products launched during the term of the MFN Agreement (with certain exceptions) will be subject to “most-favored-nation” pricing in reference to prices for such products in a specified group of countries (MFN Countries).
- The Company anticipates the impact of biosimilar erosion to Keytruda sales will be immaterial in 2026.
- The Company pays an additional 2% royalty on worldwide net sales of Keytruda (and on Keytruda Qlex following regulatory approval) to another third party; this royalty expired in the U.S. in 2024, expired in major European markets in the second half of 2025, but will continue to be paid on net sales of Keytruda and Keytruda Qlex in certain other international markets expiring at various dates through 2035.
- In the second and third quarters of 2026, the Company made limited shipments to China; however, revenue associated with the revised supply contract is expected to be immaterial in 2026.
- The Company anticipates that any negative effect of these recommendations or reduced dosing schedules on sales of Gardasil/Gardasil 9 will not be material.
- The Company anticipates that any negative effect of these recommendations on sales of ProQuad will not be material.
- Dificid lost market exclusivity in the U.S. in July 2025; accordingly, the Company is experiencing a significant decline in U.S. sales of Dificid and expects the decline to continue.
Merck's latest quarter
Merck, Q3 2026: revenue $18.1B (+5% year over year), operating margin 30.7%, net earnings $5.1B, operating cash flow $6.6B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Did Merck raise or lower its guidance?
Merck (MRK) raised some and lowered other parts of its guidance on Oct 29, 2026: EPS $2.77–$2.82 for FY2026; Revenue $66.8B–$67.3B for FY2026; Revenue +1% for FY2026; Tax rate 32%–33% for FY2026.
What does Merck expect?
The Company recorded a charge to Research and development expenses of $400 million in the third quarter and first nine months of 2026, or $0.12 per share, for the upfront payment, which is expected to be paid in the fourth quarter of 2026. Furthermore, the Company expects that Keytruda (pembrolizumab) will be selected in 2027 for government price setting, which As a result of the Company’s participation in the GENEROUS Model, it expects to be exempt from the Global Benchmark for Efficient Drug Pricing (GLOBE) Model through December 2030.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.