Filing Flows › Moderna (MRNA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Moderna (MRNA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Moderna on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$2.7B over the last 12 months, on revenue of $2.5B). Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average).
Why a leveraged buyout does not fit
A leveraged buyout is paid for mostly with debt that the company's own cash flow repays. Moderna's EBITDA over the last 12 months was −$2.7B on revenue of $2.5B, so there is nothing to lend against and nothing to repay a loan with: a buyer would have to pay almost entirely with its own money. That is the kind of deal another company — a strategic buyer that wants the products, the pipeline or the technology — makes, not a private-equity fund. The model therefore gives no buyout price.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Moderna would cost about $299.32 a share, $128.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $270.50 | $116.3B |
| Median | 35% | $299.32 | $128.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $321.49 | $138.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Moderna's latest quarter
Moderna, Q3 2026: revenue $1.3B (+29% year over year), operating margin 9.9%, net earnings $162M, operating cash flow −$1.6B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Moderna being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Moderna?
A leveraged buyout does not work for Moderna on its latest figures: it has no positive EBITDA to borrow against (−$2.7B over the last 12 months, on revenue of $2.5B). With no cash flow to repay a loan, a buyer would pay almost entirely with its own money: a deal for another company (a strategic buyer), not for a private-equity fund.
What would a takeover of Moderna cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Moderna would cost about $299.32 a share, $128.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.