Filing Flows › MSCI (MSCI) › Takeover & LBO
Is MSCI (MSCI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($810.39 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $401.60 a share (−36% against today's $623.38). At $65.0B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.57× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $810.39 | today's $623.38 plus 30% |
| × shares | 72.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $58.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $6.7B | |
| − Cash | $261M | |
| = Enterprise value | $65.0B | 33.6× EBITDA of $1.9B |
| Fees | $1.3B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $10.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $55.7B | 84% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.7B | $2.1B | $815M | $1.0B | $9.6B |
| Year 2 | $4.0B | $2.2B | $737M | $1.2B | $8.4B |
| Year 3 | $4.2B | $2.4B | $644M | $1.4B | $7.0B |
| Year 4 | $4.4B | $2.5B | $537M | $1.6B | $5.5B |
| Year 5 | $4.5B | $2.5B | $417M | $1.7B | $3.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 26.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $67.3B | |
| − Debt left | $3.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $63.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.14× | on $55.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $623.38; the IRR reaches 20% at $401.60 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $685.72 | 6.5% |
| 20% | $748.06 | 4.5% |
| 30% | $810.39 | 2.7% |
| 40% | $872.73 | 1.1% |
| 50% | $935.07 | −0.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.9B | 56.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $26.1M | |
| Capital spending | $39.6M | |
| Debt | $6.7B | |
| Cash | $261M | |
| Share price | $623.38 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 15% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, MSCI would cost about $872.73 a share, $63.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $715.02 | $51.7B |
| Median | 40% | $872.73 | $63.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $998.65 | $72.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.57× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
MSCI's latest quarter
MSCI, Q3 2026: revenue $892M (+12% year over year), operating margin 56.3%, net earnings $351M, operating cash flow $436M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is MSCI being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy MSCI?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($810.39 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $401.60 a share (−36% against today's $623.38). At $65.0B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of MSCI cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, MSCI would cost about $872.73 a share, $63.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.