Filing Flows › Matador Resources (MTDR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Matador Resources (MTDR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($79.14 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $13.03 a share (−79% against today's $60.88). Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.64× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $79.14 | today's $60.88 plus 30% |
| × shares | 123.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $9.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.0B | |
| − Cash | $11.8M | |
| + Other claims | $365M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $15.1B | 6.1× EBITDA of $2.5B |
| Fees | $303M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $9.8B | 4.0× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $5.6B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.9B | $2.5B | $752M | −$925M | $10.8B |
| Year 2 | $4.0B | $2.6B | $823M | −$991M | $11.7B |
| Year 3 | $4.1B | $2.6B | $899M | −$1.1B | $12.8B |
| Year 4 | $4.2B | $2.7B | $980M | −$1.1B | $14.0B |
| Year 5 | $4.3B | $2.8B | $1.1B | −$1.2B | $15.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $14.3B | |
| − Debt left | $15.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | −$863M | |
| Money multiple | -0.15× | on $5.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −100.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $60.88; the IRR reaches 20% at $13.03 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $66.97 | −37.7% |
| 20% | $73.06 | −100.0% |
| 30% | $79.14 | −100.0% |
| 40% | $85.23 | −100.0% |
| 50% | $91.32 | −100.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.5B | 64.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.3B | |
| Capital spending | $2.6B | |
| Debt | $5.0B | |
| Cash | $11.8M | |
| Share price | $60.88 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.3% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 17% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Matador Resources would cost about $80.67 a share, $10.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $73.06 | $9.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $80.67 | $10.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $92.42 | $11.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.64× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Matador Resources' latest quarter
Matador Resources, Q3 2026: revenue $1.2B (+24% year over year), operating margin 30.4%, net earnings $172M, operating cash flow $594M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Matador Resources being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Matador Resources?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($79.14 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $13.03 a share (−79% against today's $60.88).
What would a takeover of Matador Resources cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Matador Resources would cost about $80.67 a share, $10.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.