Filing Flows › Vail Resorts (MTN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Vail Resorts (MTN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($196.31 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $82.02 a share (−46% against today's $151.01). Historically 6.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.32× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $196.31 | today's $151.01 plus 30% |
| × shares | 35.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $3.2B | |
| − Cash | $268M | |
| = Enterprise value | $9.9B | 13.7× EBITDA of $726M |
| Fees | $198M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.1B | 61% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.8B | $704M | $306M | $149M | $3.8B |
| Year 2 | $2.7B | $694M | $294M | $152M | $3.7B |
| Year 3 | $2.7B | $694M | $283M | $160M | $3.5B |
| Year 4 | $2.8B | $704M | $270M | $171M | $3.4B |
| Year 5 | $2.8B | $725M | $257M | $188M | $3.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.3B | |
| − Debt left | $3.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.1B | |
| Money multiple | 0.84× | on $6.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −3.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $151.01; the IRR reaches 20% at $82.02 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $166.11 | 0.4% |
| 20% | $181.21 | −1.7% |
| 30% | $196.31 | −3.5% |
| 40% | $211.41 | −5.2% |
| 50% | $226.51 | −6.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $726M | 25.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $306M | |
| Capital spending | $232M | |
| Debt | $3.2B | |
| Cash | $268M | |
| Share price | $151.01 | on Oct 16, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Vail Resorts would cost about $200.09 a share, $7.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $181.21 | $6.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $200.09 | $7.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $229.23 | $8.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.32× the average). Its figures put it in decile 9 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Vail Resorts' latest quarter
Vail Resorts, Q4 FY26: revenue $278M (+2% year over year), operating margin -75.1%, net loss $199M, operating cash flow −$103M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Vail Resorts being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Vail Resorts?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($196.31 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $82.02 a share (−46% against today's $151.01).
What would a takeover of Vail Resorts cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Vail Resorts would cost about $200.09 a share, $7.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.