Filing Flows › Maxlinear (MXL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Maxlinear (MXL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($125.01 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $50.51 a share (−47% against today's $96.16). Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.51× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $125.01 | today's $96.16 plus 30% |
| × shares | 97.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $12.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $164M | |
| − Cash | $81.1M | |
| = Enterprise value | $12.3B | 329.3× EBITDA of $37.3M |
| Fees | $246M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $205M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $12.3B | 98% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $713M | $40.3M | $15.7M | $4.9M | $200M |
| Year 2 | $762M | $43.1M | $15.3M | $7.5M | $193M |
| Year 3 | $803M | $45.4M | $14.8M | $10.2M | $183M |
| Year 4 | $838M | $47.4M | $14.0M | $13.0M | $170M |
| Year 5 | $863M | $48.8M | $13.0M | $15.8M | $154M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 253.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $12.4B | |
| − Debt left | $154M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $12.2B | |
| Money multiple | 0.99× | on $12.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $96.16; the IRR reaches 20% at $50.51 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $105.78 | 3.2% |
| 20% | $115.39 | 1.4% |
| 30% | $125.01 | −0.2% |
| 40% | $134.62 | −1.7% |
| 50% | $144.24 | −3.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $661M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $37.3M | 5.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $43.4M | |
| Capital spending | $13.4M | |
| Debt | $164M | |
| Cash | $81.1M | |
| Share price | $96.16 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Maxlinear would cost about $125.01 a share, $12.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $107.70 | $10.5B |
| Median | 30% | $125.01 | $12.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $125.97 | $12.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.51× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Maxlinear's latest quarter
Maxlinear, Q3 2026: revenue $218M (+72% year over year), operating margin 13.9%, net earnings $28.9M, operating cash flow −$13.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Maxlinear being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Maxlinear?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($125.01 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $50.51 a share (−47% against today's $96.16).
What would a takeover of Maxlinear cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Maxlinear would cost about $125.01 a share, $12.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.