Filing Flows › NCR Atleos (NATL) › Takeover & LBO
Is NCR Atleos (NATL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($59.57 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $44.93 a share (−2% against today's $45.82). Historically 4.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.9× the average). Latest signal (2026-05-27): Merger proxy (DEFM14A).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $59.57 | today's $45.82 plus 30% |
| × shares | 76.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.5B | |
| − Cash | $311M | |
| + Other claims | −$1.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $6.7B | 7.8× EBITDA of $859M |
| Fees | $134M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.3B | 5.1× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $2.5B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.5B | $876M | $332M | $344M | $4.0B |
| Year 2 | $4.6B | $896M | $306M | $379M | $3.6B |
| Year 3 | $4.7B | $919M | $277M | $417M | $3.2B |
| Year 4 | $4.8B | $944M | $245M | $460M | $2.7B |
| Year 5 | $5.0B | $972M | $210M | $507M | $2.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $6.4B | |
| − Debt left | $2.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.68× | on $2.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 10.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $45.82; the IRR reaches 20% at $44.93 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $50.40 | 16.5% |
| 20% | $54.98 | 13.7% |
| 30% | $59.57 | 10.9% |
| 40% | $64.15 | 8.1% |
| 50% | $68.73 | 5.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $859M | 19.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $280M | |
| Capital spending | $141M | |
| Debt | $2.5B | |
| Cash | $311M | |
| Share price | $45.82 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 2.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, NCR Atleos would cost about $59.57 a share, $4.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $51.32 | $3.9B |
| Median | 30% | $59.57 | $4.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $60.02 | $4.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.9× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-05-27 · DEFM14A · Merger proxy (DEFM14A)
NCR Atleos' latest quarter
NCR Atleos, Q3 2026: revenue $1.1B (-2% year over year), operating margin 16.7%, net earnings $97.0M, operating cash flow $198M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is NCR Atleos being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-05-27: Merger proxy (DEFM14A). A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy NCR Atleos?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($59.57 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $44.93 a share (−2% against today's $45.82).
What would a takeover of NCR Atleos cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, NCR Atleos would cost about $59.57 a share, $4.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.