Filing Flows › Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($189.93 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $189.93 | today's $146.10 plus 30% |
| × shares | 105.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $20.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $738M | |
| = Enterprise value | $19.2B | 19.8× EBITDA of $971M |
| Fees | $385M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $14.3B | 73% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.0B | $1.0B | $408M | $447M | $4.9B |
| Year 2 | $4.3B | $1.1B | $374M | $528M | $4.4B |
| Year 3 | $4.5B | $1.2B | $334M | $608M | $3.8B |
| Year 4 | $4.7B | $1.2B | $287M | $685M | $3.1B |
| Year 5 | $4.8B | $1.3B | $235M | $757M | $2.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $19.1B | |
| − Debt left | $2.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $16.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.18× | on $14.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $146.10.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $160.71 | 8.5% |
| 20% | $175.32 | 5.7% |
| 30% | $189.93 | 3.3% |
| 40% | $204.54 | 1.2% |
| 50% | $219.15 | −0.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $971M | 26.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $83.6M | |
| Capital spending | $26.1M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $738M | |
| Share price | $146.10 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Neurocrine Biosciences would cost about $197.24 a share, $20.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $178.24 | $18.8B |
| Median | 35% | $197.24 | $20.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $211.84 | $22.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.43× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Neurocrine Biosciences' latest quarter
Neurocrine Biosciences, Q3 2026: revenue $1.1B (+41% year over year), operating margin 29.5%, net earnings $206M, operating cash flow $395M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Neurocrine Biosciences being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Neurocrine Biosciences?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($189.93 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Neurocrine Biosciences cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Neurocrine Biosciences would cost about $197.24 a share, $20.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.