Filing Flows › Neogen (NEOG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Neogen (NEOG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($15.35 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $5.28 a share (−55% against today's $11.81). Historically 7.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.46× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $15.35 | today's $11.81 plus 30% |
| × shares | 218.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $774M | |
| − Cash | $172M | |
| = Enterprise value | $4.0B | 36.2× EBITDA of $109M |
| Fees | $79.0M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $600M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.4B | 85% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $881M | $109M | $45.9M | $27.4M | $572M |
| Year 2 | $885M | $109M | $43.8M | $29.4M | $543M |
| Year 3 | $897M | $111M | $41.5M | $31.9M | $511M |
| Year 4 | $917M | $113M | $39.1M | $35.2M | $476M |
| Year 5 | $944M | $116M | $36.4M | $39.4M | $436M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 29.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.4B | |
| − Debt left | $436M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.0B | |
| Money multiple | 0.86× | on $3.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −2.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $11.81; the IRR reaches 20% at $5.28 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $12.99 | 0.4% |
| 20% | $14.17 | −1.4% |
| 30% | $15.35 | −2.9% |
| 40% | $16.53 | −4.3% |
| 50% | $17.71 | −5.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $884M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $109M | 12.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $116M | |
| Capital spending | $35.5M | |
| Debt | $774M | |
| Cash | $172M | |
| Share price | $11.81 | on Oct 16, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -0.3% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Neogen would cost about $15.94 a share, $3.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $14.41 | $3.1B |
| Median | 35% | $15.94 | $3.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $17.12 | $3.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 7.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.46× the average). Its figures put it in decile 9 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Neogen's latest quarter
Neogen, Q1 FY27: revenue $223M (+6% year over year), operating margin -0.8%, net loss $11.9M, operating cash flow $12.9M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Neogen being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Neogen?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($15.35 a share) would return a loss of about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $5.28 a share (−55% against today's $11.81).
What would a takeover of Neogen cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Neogen would cost about $15.94 a share, $3.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.