Filing Flows › Newmarket (NEU) › Takeover & LBO
Is Newmarket (NEU) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($1,018.76 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $583.16 a share (−26% against today's $783.66). Historically 4.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.92× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $1,018.76 | today's $783.66 plus 30% |
| × shares | 9.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $9.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $830M | |
| − Cash | $77.3M | |
| = Enterprise value | $10.1B | 14.7× EBITDA of $687M |
| Fees | $202M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.5B | 63% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.8B | $693M | $289M | $186M | $3.6B |
| Year 2 | $2.8B | $702M | $275M | $201M | $3.4B |
| Year 3 | $2.9B | $716M | $259M | $220M | $3.2B |
| Year 4 | $3.0B | $734M | $242M | $242M | $2.9B |
| Year 5 | $3.0B | $756M | $224M | $268M | $2.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.7B | |
| − Debt left | $2.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.1B | |
| Money multiple | 0.93× | on $6.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $783.66; the IRR reaches 20% at $583.16 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $862.03 | 3.8% |
| 20% | $940.39 | 1.0% |
| 30% | $1,018.76 | −1.4% |
| 40% | $1,097.12 | −3.5% |
| 50% | $1,175.49 | −5.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $687M | 24.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $127M | |
| Capital spending | $153M | |
| Debt | $830M | |
| Cash | $77.3M | |
| Share price | $783.66 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 0.9% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Newmarket would cost about $1,038.35 a share, $9.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $940.39 | $8.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $1,038.35 | $9.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $1,189.60 | $10.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.92× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Newmarket's latest quarter
Newmarket, Q3 2026: revenue $717M (+4% year over year), operating margin 20.0%, net earnings $124M, operating cash flow $68.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Newmarket being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Newmarket?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($1,018.76 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $583.16 a share (−26% against today's $783.66).
What would a takeover of Newmarket cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Newmarket would cost about $1,038.35 a share, $9.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.