Filing Flows › National Healthcare (NHC) › Takeover & LBO
Is National Healthcare (NHC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($267.98 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $137.02 a share (−34% against today's $206.14). Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $267.98 | today's $206.14 plus 30% |
| × shares | 16.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $502M | |
| − Cash | $66.8M | |
| + Other claims | $6.3M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $4.7B | 23.1× EBITDA of $204M |
| Fees | $94.4M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.7B | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.7B | $215M | $85.9M | $58.3M | $1.1B |
| Year 2 | $1.8B | $226M | $81.4M | $68.9M | $995M |
| Year 3 | $1.8B | $236M | $76.1M | $79.6M | $916M |
| Year 4 | $1.9B | $244M | $70.0M | $90.5M | $825M |
| Year 5 | $2.0B | $252M | $63.1M | $101M | $724M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 18.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.6B | |
| − Debt left | $724M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.05× | on $3.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $206.14; the IRR reaches 20% at $137.02 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $226.75 | 5.1% |
| 20% | $247.37 | 2.9% |
| 30% | $267.98 | 1.0% |
| 40% | $288.60 | −0.7% |
| 50% | $309.21 | −2.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $204M | 12.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $49.1M | |
| Capital spending | $42.3M | |
| Debt | $502M | |
| Cash | $66.8M | |
| Share price | $206.14 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 5.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, National Healthcare would cost about $278.29 a share, $4.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $251.49 | $4.0B |
| Median | 35% | $278.29 | $4.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $298.90 | $4.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
National Healthcare's latest quarter
National Healthcare, Q3 2026: revenue $408M (+7% year over year), operating margin 10.0%, net earnings $13.6M, operating cash flow $99.2M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is National Healthcare being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy National Healthcare?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($267.98 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $137.02 a share (−34% against today's $206.14).
What would a takeover of National Healthcare cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, National Healthcare would cost about $278.29 a share, $4.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.