Filing Flows › Newmark Group (NMRK) › Takeover & LBO
Is Newmark Group (NMRK) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($14.98 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $12.01 a share (4% against today's $11.52). Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.58× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $14.98 | today's $11.52 plus 30% |
| × shares | 252.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $878M | |
| − Cash | $240M | |
| + Other claims | $305M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $4.7B | 10.3× EBITDA of $460M |
| Fees | $94.5M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.3B | 47% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.0B | $497M | $194M | $185M | $2.3B |
| Year 2 | $4.3B | $531M | $180M | $222M | $2.1B |
| Year 3 | $4.5B | $560M | $163M | $260M | $1.9B |
| Year 4 | $4.7B | $584M | $143M | $296M | $1.6B |
| Year 5 | $4.9B | $601M | $120M | $330M | $1.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.0B | |
| − Debt left | $1.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.66× | on $2.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 10.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $11.52; the IRR reaches 20% at $12.01 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $12.67 | 17.5% |
| 20% | $13.82 | 13.7% |
| 30% | $14.98 | 10.6% |
| 40% | $16.13 | 8.0% |
| 50% | $17.28 | 5.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $460M | 12.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $184M | |
| Capital spending | $56.9M | |
| Debt | $878M | |
| Cash | $240M | |
| Share price | $11.52 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 26% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Newmark Group would cost about $15.26 a share, $3.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $13.82 | $3.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $15.26 | $3.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $17.49 | $4.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.58× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Newmark Group's latest quarter
Newmark Group, Q3 2026: revenue $973M (+13% year over year), operating margin 8.8%, net earnings $48.9M, operating cash flow −$290M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Newmark Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Newmark Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($14.98 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $12.01 a share (4% against today's $11.52).
What would a takeover of Newmark Group cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Newmark Group would cost about $15.26 a share, $3.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.