Filing Flows › Nokia (NOK) › Takeover & LBO
Is Nokia (NOK) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($9.96 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $5.10 a share (−33% against today's $7.66).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $9.96 | today's $7.66 plus 30% |
| × shares | 5,742.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $57.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $0 | |
| = Enterprise value | $57.2B | 28.5× EBITDA of $2.0B |
| Fees | $1.1B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $11.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $47.3B | 81% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $20.5B | $2.1B | $843M | $1.1B | $9.9B |
| Year 2 | $21.1B | $2.1B | $756M | $1.3B | $8.6B |
| Year 3 | $21.7B | $2.2B | $660M | $1.4B | $7.3B |
| Year 4 | $22.4B | $2.3B | $555M | $1.5B | $5.7B |
| Year 5 | $23.1B | $2.3B | $440M | $1.6B | $4.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 21.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $51.0B | |
| − Debt left | $4.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $46.9B | |
| Money multiple | 0.99× | on $47.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $7.66; the IRR reaches 20% at $5.10 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $8.43 | 4.1% |
| 20% | $9.19 | 1.8% |
| 30% | $9.96 | −0.2% |
| 40% | $10.72 | −2.0% |
| 50% | $11.49 | −3.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $19.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.0B | 10.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.1B | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $0 | |
| Share price | $7.66 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Nokia would cost about $9.96 a share, $57.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $8.58 | $49.3B |
| Median | 30% | $9.96 | $57.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $10.03 | $57.6B |
Nokia's latest quarter
Nokia, Q3 2026: revenue $5.2B (+7% year over year), operating margin 3.8%, net earnings $156M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Nokia being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Nokia?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($9.96 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $5.10 a share (−33% against today's $7.66).
What would a takeover of Nokia cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Nokia would cost about $9.96 a share, $57.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 9, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.