Filing Flows › NOV (NOV) › Takeover & LBO
Is NOV (NOV) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($23.02 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $12.89 a share (−27% against today's $17.70). Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.73× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $23.02 | today's $17.70 plus 30% |
| × shares | 360.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $8.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.7B | |
| − Cash | $1.1B | |
| + Other claims | $61.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $9.0B | 10.7× EBITDA of $842M |
| Fees | $180M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.5B | 50% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $8.6B | $834M | $354M | $113M | $4.5B |
| Year 2 | $8.6B | $834M | $346M | $119M | $4.4B |
| Year 3 | $8.7B | $842M | $336M | $121M | $4.3B |
| Year 4 | $8.9B | $859M | $327M | $126M | $4.2B |
| Year 5 | $9.1B | $885M | $318M | $134M | $4.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $7.4B | |
| − Debt left | $4.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.4B | |
| Money multiple | 0.75× | on $4.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −5.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $17.70; the IRR reaches 20% at $12.89 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $19.48 | 1.1% |
| 20% | $21.25 | −2.5% |
| 30% | $23.02 | −5.5% |
| 40% | $24.79 | −8.0% |
| 50% | $26.56 | −10.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $8.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $842M | 9.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $368M | |
| Capital spending | $335M | |
| Debt | $1.7B | |
| Cash | $1.1B | |
| Share price | $17.70 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -1.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, NOV would cost about $24.79 a share, $8.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $20.31 | $7.3B |
| Median | 40% | $24.79 | $8.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $28.36 | $10.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.73× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
NOV's latest quarter
NOV, Q3 2026: revenue $2.2B (+2% year over year), operating margin 6.4%, net earnings $90.0M, operating cash flow $41.0M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is NOV being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy NOV?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($23.02 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $12.89 a share (−27% against today's $17.70).
What would a takeover of NOV cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, NOV would cost about $24.79 a share, $8.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.