Filing Flows › Novanta (NOVT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Novanta (NOVT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($177.66 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 4.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.98× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $177.66 | today's $136.66 plus 30% |
| × shares | 41.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $230M | |
| − Cash | $719M | |
| = Enterprise value | $6.8B | 44.3× EBITDA of $154M |
| Fees | $136M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $846M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $6.1B | 88% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.1B | $166M | $64.7M | $65.1M | $781M |
| Year 2 | $1.2B | $176M | $59.8M | $77.8M | $703M |
| Year 3 | $1.2B | $186M | $53.8M | $90.6M | $613M |
| Year 4 | $1.3B | $193M | $46.9M | $103M | $510M |
| Year 5 | $1.3B | $199M | $39.0M | $115M | $395M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 33.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $6.6B | |
| − Debt left | $395M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.02× | on $6.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $136.66.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $150.33 | 4.7% |
| 20% | $163.99 | 2.4% |
| 30% | $177.66 | 0.4% |
| 40% | $191.32 | −1.3% |
| 50% | $204.99 | −2.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $154M | 14.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $61.6M | |
| Capital spending | $19.6M | |
| Debt | $230M | |
| Cash | $719M | |
| Share price | $136.66 | on Oct 22, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 7.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 20% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Novanta would cost about $177.66 a share, $7.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $153.06 | $6.3B |
| Median | 30% | $177.66 | $7.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $179.02 | $7.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.98× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Novanta's latest quarter
Novanta, Q2 2026: revenue $266M (+10% year over year), operating margin 6.8%, net earnings $12.5M, operating cash flow $64.9M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Novanta being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Novanta?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($177.66 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Novanta cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Novanta would cost about $177.66 a share, $7.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.