Filing Flows › NVIDIA (NVDA) › Takeover & LBO
Is NVIDIA (NVDA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($236.08 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $132.12 a share (−27% against today's $181.60). At $5.70T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $236.08 | today's $181.60 plus 30% |
| × shares | 24,285.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.73T | |
| + Debt refinanced | $33.4B | |
| − Cash | $71.6B | |
| = Enterprise value | $5.70T | 28.3× EBITDA of $201.3B |
| Fees | $113.9B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.11T | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.70T | 81% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $327.2B | $217.4B | $84.7B | $101.7B | $1.01T |
| Year 2 | $349.3B | $232.0B | $76.9B | $120.2B | $885.1B |
| Year 3 | $368.5B | $244.8B | $67.7B | $138.5B | $746.5B |
| Year 4 | $384.2B | $255.2B | $57.1B | $156.2B | $590.4B |
| Year 5 | $395.7B | $262.9B | $45.2B | $172.8B | $417.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 21.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.71T | |
| − Debt left | $417.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $5.29T | |
| Money multiple | 1.13× | on $4.70T put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $181.60; the IRR reaches 20% at $132.12 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $199.76 | 6.8% |
| 20% | $217.92 | 4.5% |
| 30% | $236.08 | 2.4% |
| 40% | $254.24 | 0.5% |
| 50% | $272.40 | −1.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $303.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $201.3B | 66.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $3.7B | |
| Capital spending | $7.4B | |
| Debt | $33.4B | |
| Cash | $71.6B | |
| Share price | $181.60 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 16% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, NVIDIA would cost about $236.08 a share, $5.73T for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $203.39 | $4.94T |
| Median | 30% | $236.08 | $5.73T |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $237.90 | $5.78T |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
NVIDIA's latest quarter
NVIDIA, Q2 FY27: revenue $96.2B (+106% year over year), operating margin 66.2%, net earnings $59.7B, operating cash flow $24.1B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is NVIDIA being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy NVIDIA?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($236.08 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $132.12 a share (−27% against today's $181.60). At $5.70T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of NVIDIA cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, NVIDIA would cost about $236.08 a share, $5.73T for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.