Filing Flows › Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($216.00 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $116.39 a share (−30% against today's $166.15).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $216.00 | today's $166.15 plus 30% |
| × shares | 208.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $45.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $20.0M | |
| − Cash | $466M | |
| = Enterprise value | $44.5B | 23.3× EBITDA of $1.9B |
| Fees | $890M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $10.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $34.9B | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.0B | $2.0B | $802M | $695M | $9.8B |
| Year 2 | $6.2B | $2.1B | $749M | $783M | $9.0B |
| Year 3 | $6.4B | $2.1B | $689M | $875M | $8.1B |
| Year 4 | $6.6B | $2.2B | $622M | $972M | $7.2B |
| Year 5 | $6.8B | $2.3B | $548M | $1.1B | $6.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 17.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $40.3B | |
| − Debt left | $6.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $34.3B | |
| Money multiple | 0.98× | on $34.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $166.15; the IRR reaches 20% at $116.39 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $182.77 | 4.2% |
| 20% | $199.38 | 1.8% |
| 30% | $216.00 | −0.4% |
| 40% | $232.61 | −2.3% |
| 50% | $249.23 | −4.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.9B | 32.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $367M | |
| Capital spending | $252M | |
| Debt | $20.0M | |
| Cash | $466M | |
| Share price | $166.15 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.8% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 25% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Old Dominion Freight Line would cost about $232.61 a share, $48.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $190.57 | $39.7B |
| Median | 40% | $232.61 | $48.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $266.17 | $55.4B |
Old Dominion Freight Line's latest quarter
Old Dominion Freight Line, Q3 2026: revenue $1.6B (+13% year over year), operating margin 28.5%, net earnings $344M, operating cash flow $469M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Old Dominion Freight Line being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Old Dominion Freight Line?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($216.00 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $116.39 a share (−30% against today's $166.15).
What would a takeover of Old Dominion Freight Line cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Old Dominion Freight Line would cost about $232.61 a share, $48.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.