Filing Flows › Olin (OLN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Olin (OLN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($22.61 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $2.28 a share (−87% against today's $17.39). It already carries 8.0× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 4.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.87× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $22.61 | today's $17.39 plus 30% |
| × shares | 115.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $3.0B | |
| − Cash | $215M | |
| + Other claims | $400K | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $5.4B | 15.4× EBITDA of $350M |
| Fees | $108M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.6B | 65% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $6.7B | $348M | $147M | −$24.3M | $2.0B |
| Year 2 | $6.7B | $348M | $149M | −$27.3M | $2.0B |
| Year 3 | $6.8B | $352M | $151M | −$34.2M | $2.0B |
| Year 4 | $6.9B | $360M | $154M | −$40.6M | $2.1B |
| Year 5 | $7.1B | $371M | $157M | −$46.7M | $2.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.1B | |
| − Debt left | $2.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $3.0B | |
| Money multiple | 0.83× | on $3.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −3.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $17.39; the IRR reaches 20% at $2.28 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $19.13 | −1.3% |
| 20% | $20.87 | −2.5% |
| 30% | $22.61 | −3.6% |
| 40% | $24.35 | −4.7% |
| 50% | $26.09 | −5.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $350M | 5.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $479M | |
| Capital spending | $226M | |
| Debt | $3.0B | |
| Cash | $215M | |
| Share price | $17.39 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -0.7% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Olin would cost about $23.04 a share, $2.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $20.87 | $2.4B |
| Median | 32.5% | $23.04 | $2.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $26.40 | $3.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.87× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Olin's latest quarter
Olin, Q3 2026: revenue $1.7B (+2% year over year), operating margin 3.4%, net earnings $14.4M, operating cash flow $110M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Olin being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Olin?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($22.61 a share) would return a loss of about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $2.28 a share (−87% against today's $17.39). It already carries 8.0× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Olin cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Olin would cost about $23.04 a share, $2.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.