Filing Flows › Omnicom Group (OMC) › Takeover & LBO
Is Omnicom Group (OMC) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($113.22 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $67.86 a share (−22% against today's $87.09). Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $113.22 | today's $87.09 plus 30% |
| × shares | 275.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $31.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $9.3B | |
| − Cash | $3.8B | |
| + Other claims | $375M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $37.1B | 17.0× EBITDA of $2.2B |
| Fees | $742M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $12.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $25.8B | 68% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $26.7B | $2.4B | $918M | $773M | $11.2B |
| Year 2 | $28.5B | $2.5B | $859M | $941M | $10.3B |
| Year 3 | $30.1B | $2.7B | $787M | $1.1B | $9.2B |
| Year 4 | $31.4B | $2.8B | $702M | $1.3B | $7.9B |
| Year 5 | $32.3B | $2.8B | $604M | $1.4B | $6.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 13.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $39.0B | |
| − Debt left | $6.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $32.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.26× | on $25.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 4.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $87.09; the IRR reaches 20% at $67.86 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $95.80 | 9.2% |
| 20% | $104.51 | 6.9% |
| 30% | $113.22 | 4.8% |
| 40% | $121.93 | 2.9% |
| 50% | $130.63 | 1.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $24.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $2.2B | 8.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $598M | |
| Capital spending | $212M | |
| Debt | $9.3B | |
| Cash | $3.8B | |
| Share price | $87.09 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Omnicom Group would cost about $121.93 a share, $33.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $99.89 | $27.5B |
| Median | 40% | $121.93 | $33.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $139.52 | $38.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Omnicom Group's latest quarter
Omnicom Group, Q3 2026: revenue $6.4B (+59% year over year), operating margin 15.4%, net earnings $656M, operating cash flow $970M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Omnicom Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Omnicom Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($113.22 a share) would return about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $67.86 a share (−22% against today's $87.09).
What would a takeover of Omnicom Group cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Omnicom Group would cost about $121.93 a share, $33.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.