Filing Flows › Onto Innovation (ONTO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Onto Innovation (ONTO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($262.04 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $262.04 | today's $201.57 plus 30% |
| × shares | 49.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $13.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $1.9B | |
| = Enterprise value | $11.1B | 51.0× EBITDA of $218M |
| Fees | $223M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $10.2B | 89% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.2B | $236M | $91.9M | $112M | $1.1B |
| Year 2 | $1.3B | $252M | $83.3M | $133M | $957M |
| Year 3 | $1.4B | $266M | $73.2M | $154M | $803M |
| Year 4 | $1.4B | $277M | $61.4M | $175M | $628M |
| Year 5 | $1.5B | $285M | $48.0M | $194M | $434M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 37.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $10.6B | |
| − Debt left | $434M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $10.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.00× | on $10.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $201.57.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $221.73 | 4.7% |
| 20% | $241.88 | 2.2% |
| 30% | $262.04 | 0.1% |
| 40% | $282.20 | −1.8% |
| 50% | $302.36 | −3.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.1B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $218M | 19.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $83.8M | |
| Capital spending | $13.8M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $1.9B | |
| Share price | $201.57 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 16% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Onto Innovation would cost about $282.20 a share, $14.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $231.20 | $11.5B |
| Median | 40% | $282.20 | $14.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $322.92 | $16.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Onto Innovation's latest quarter
Onto Innovation, Q2 2026: revenue $343M (+35% year over year), operating margin 18.5%, net earnings $60.1M, operating cash flow $61.5M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Onto Innovation being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Onto Innovation?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($262.04 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Onto Innovation cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Onto Innovation would cost about $282.20 a share, $14.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.