Filing Flows › Oracle (ORCL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Oracle (ORCL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($149.73 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $424.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.41× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $149.73 | today's $115.18 plus 30% |
| × shares | 3,000.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $449.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $7.2B | |
| − Cash | $37.1B | |
| + Other claims | $5.4B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $424.7B | 12.5× EBITDA of $33.9B |
| Fees | $8.5B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $186.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $246.5B | 57% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $77.5B | $36.7B | $14.3B | −$63.1B | $249.8B |
| Year 2 | $82.8B | $39.1B | $19.1B | −$70.0B | $319.7B |
| Year 3 | $87.3B | $41.3B | $24.5B | −$76.7B | $396.5B |
| Year 4 | $91.0B | $43.0B | $30.3B | −$83.6B | $480.1B |
| Year 5 | $93.7B | $44.3B | $36.7B | −$91.5B | $571.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $419.3B | |
| − Debt left | $571.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | −$152.3B | |
| Money multiple | -0.62× | on $246.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −100.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $115.18.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $126.70 | −100.0% |
| 20% | $138.22 | −100.0% |
| 30% | $149.73 | −100.0% |
| 40% | $161.25 | −100.0% |
| 50% | $172.77 | −100.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $71.8B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $33.9B | 47.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $10.9B | |
| Capital spending | $75.7B | |
| Debt | $7.2B | |
| Cash | $37.1B | |
| Share price | $115.18 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Oracle would cost about $149.73 a share, $449.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $129.00 | $387.0B |
| Median | 30% | $149.73 | $449.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $150.89 | $452.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.41× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Oracle's latest quarter
Oracle, Q1 FY27: revenue $19.3B (+30% year over year), operating margin 34.8%, net earnings $4.8B, operating cash flow $23.1B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Oracle being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Oracle?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($149.73 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $424.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Oracle cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Oracle would cost about $149.73 a share, $449.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.