Filing Flows › Ovintiv (OVV) › Takeover & LBO
Is Ovintiv (OVV) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($79.30 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $57.57 a share (−6% against today's $61.00). Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.57× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-03): Ovintiv Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial and Operating Results.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $79.30 | today's $61.00 plus 30% |
| × shares | 275.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $21.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $3.6B | |
| − Cash | $176M | |
| = Enterprise value | $25.3B | 6.8× EBITDA of $3.7B |
| Fees | $505M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $16.4B | 4.4× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $9.3B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $11.1B | $4.0B | $1.3B | $241M | $16.2B |
| Year 2 | $11.9B | $4.3B | $1.2B | $361M | $15.8B |
| Year 3 | $12.5B | $4.5B | $1.2B | $479M | $15.3B |
| Year 4 | $13.1B | $4.7B | $1.2B | $592M | $14.7B |
| Year 5 | $13.4B | $4.9B | $1.1B | $696M | $14.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $26.4B | |
| − Debt left | $14.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $12.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.32× | on $9.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 5.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $61.00; the IRR reaches 20% at $57.57 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $67.10 | 13.7% |
| 20% | $73.20 | 9.7% |
| 30% | $79.30 | 5.7% |
| 40% | $85.40 | 1.7% |
| 50% | $91.50 | −2.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $10.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.7B | 36.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.2B | |
| Capital spending | $2.2B | |
| Debt | $3.6B | |
| Cash | $176M | |
| Share price | $61.00 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ovintiv would cost about $80.83 a share, $22.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $73.20 | $20.2B |
| Median | 32.5% | $80.83 | $22.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $92.60 | $25.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.57× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-03 · 8-K deal · Ovintiv Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial and Operating Results
Ovintiv's latest quarter
Ovintiv, Q3 2026: revenue $2.6B (+26% year over year), operating margin 33.7%, net earnings $549M, operating cash flow $1.1B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Ovintiv being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-03: Ovintiv Reports Third Quarter 2026 Financial and Operating Results. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Ovintiv?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($79.30 a share) would return about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $57.57 a share (−6% against today's $61.00).
What would a takeover of Ovintiv cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ovintiv would cost about $80.83 a share, $22.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.