Filing Flows › Oxford Industries (OXM) › Takeover & LBO
Is Oxford Industries (OXM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($36.66 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $9.07 a share (−68% against today's $28.20). Historically 6.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.24× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $36.66 | today's $28.20 plus 30% |
| × shares | 15.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $553M | |
| + Debt refinanced | $73.2M | |
| − Cash | $9.0M | |
| = Enterprise value | $617M | 9.6× EBITDA of $64.2M |
| Fees | $12.3M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $353M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $276M | 44% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.4B | $63.0M | $27.0M | −$47.7M | $401M |
| Year 2 | $1.4B | $62.7M | $30.7M | −$51.2M | $452M |
| Year 3 | $1.4B | $63.0M | $34.6M | −$56.1M | $508M |
| Year 4 | $1.5B | $64.2M | $38.9M | −$62.5M | $571M |
| Year 5 | $1.5B | $66.1M | $43.7M | −$69.7M | $640M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $504M | |
| − Debt left | $640M | |
| = Buyer's equity | −$137M | |
| Money multiple | -0.49× | on $276M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −100.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $28.20; the IRR reaches 20% at $9.07 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $31.02 | −100.0% |
| 20% | $33.84 | −100.0% |
| 30% | $36.66 | −100.0% |
| 40% | $39.48 | −100.0% |
| 50% | $42.30 | −100.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $64.2M | 4.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $65.9M | |
| Capital spending | $85.3M | |
| Debt | $73.2M | |
| Cash | $9.0M | |
| Share price | $28.20 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -1.8% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Oxford Industries would cost about $37.36 a share, $563M for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $33.84 | $510M |
| Median | 32.5% | $37.36 | $563M |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $42.81 | $645M |
The odds, from history
Historically 6.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.24× the average). Its figures put it in decile 8 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Oxford Industries' latest quarter
Oxford Industries, Q2 FY27: revenue $394M (-2% year over year), operating margin 17.4%, net earnings $49.0M, operating cash flow $89.4M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Oxford Industries being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Oxford Industries?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($36.66 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $9.07 a share (−68% against today's $28.20).
What would a takeover of Oxford Industries cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Oxford Industries would cost about $37.36 a share, $563M for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.