Filing Flows › Penske Automotive Group (PAG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Penske Automotive Group (PAG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($275.86 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $151.58 a share (−29% against today's $212.20). Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.54× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-06): Penske Automotive Group reports Q3 ahead of take-private deal.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $275.86 | today's $212.20 plus 30% |
| × shares | 65.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $18.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.4B | |
| − Cash | $68.3M | |
| + Other claims | $18.3M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $20.4B | 14.8× EBITDA of $1.4B |
| Fees | $409M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $7.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $13.2B | 63% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $33.0B | $1.4B | $583M | $299M | $7.3B |
| Year 2 | $33.6B | $1.4B | $560M | $315M | $7.0B |
| Year 3 | $34.3B | $1.5B | $536M | $335M | $6.7B |
| Year 4 | $35.2B | $1.5B | $510M | $360M | $6.3B |
| Year 5 | $36.3B | $1.5B | $483M | $388M | $5.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $18.1B | |
| − Debt left | $5.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $12.2B | |
| Money multiple | 0.92× | on $13.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $212.20; the IRR reaches 20% at $151.58 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $233.42 | 3.3% |
| 20% | $254.64 | 0.6% |
| 30% | $275.86 | −1.6% |
| 40% | $297.08 | −3.6% |
| 50% | $318.30 | −5.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $32.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.4B | 4.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $180M | |
| Capital spending | $302M | |
| Debt | $2.4B | |
| Cash | $68.3M | |
| Share price | $212.20 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 27% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Penske Automotive Group would cost about $281.16 a share, $18.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $254.64 | $16.7B |
| Median | 32.5% | $281.16 | $18.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $322.12 | $21.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.54× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-06 · news · Penske Automotive Group reports Q3 ahead of take-private deal
- 2026-11-03 · news · PAG Shareholder Notice: Penske Automotive Group $212.00 per Share Take-Private Merger Under Investigation on Behalf of Shareholders
- 2026-10-28 · news · Penske Automotive Take-Private at $212 Overshadows Q3 Beat
- 2026-10-28 · news · Penske Automotive's Truck Business Flexes Its Muscle Ahead of $16.3 Billion Take-Private Deal
- 2026-10-28 · news · Penske Automotive Q3 Revenue Up 5% to $8.4B, EPS $3.36, $212 Take-Private Pending
- 2026-10-28 · news · Penske Automotive Earnings: Third-Quarter Results Good; We Still Expect the Buyout to Happen
- 2026-10-27 · news · PAG Investor Investigation: Penske Automotive Group Shareholders Are Alerted to the Pending Investigation into the $212.00 per Share Take-Private Merger
- 2026-10-27 · news · Penske Automotive earnings on deck amid go-private uncertainty By Investing.com
- 2026-10-27 · news · Penske Automotive earnings on deck amid go-private uncertainty
- 2026-10-19 · news · Penske Automotive Group announces plans to go private in $16.3 billion deal
Penske Automotive Group's latest quarter
Penske Automotive Group, Q3 2026: revenue $8.4B (+4% year over year), operating margin 3.6%, net earnings $221M, operating cash flow $306M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Penske Automotive Group being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-06: Penske Automotive Group reports Q3 ahead of take-private deal. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Penske Automotive Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($275.86 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $151.58 a share (−29% against today's $212.20).
What would a takeover of Penske Automotive Group cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Penske Automotive Group would cost about $281.16 a share, $18.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.