Filing Flows › PBF Energy (PBF) › Takeover & LBO
Is PBF Energy (PBF) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($88.88 a share) would return about 35% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.53× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $88.88 | today's $68.37 plus 30% |
| × shares | 122.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $10.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $2.1B | |
| − Cash | $2.5B | |
| + Other claims | $148M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $10.6B | 2.4× EBITDA of $4.5B |
| Fees | $213M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $6.9B | 1.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $3.9B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $42.0B | $4.8B | $529M | $2.1B | $4.8B |
| Year 2 | $44.8B | $5.1B | $364M | $2.5B | $2.3B |
| Year 3 | $47.3B | $5.4B | $173M | $2.8B | $0 |
| Year 4 | $49.3B | $5.7B | $0 | $3.2B | $0 |
| Year 5 | $50.7B | $5.8B | $0 | $3.3B | $0 |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 1.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $10.6B | |
| − Debt left | $0 | |
| + Cash built up | $7.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $17.6B | |
| Money multiple | 4.48× | on $3.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 35.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $68.37.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $75.21 | 41.7% |
| 20% | $82.04 | 38.2% |
| 30% | $88.88 | 35.0% |
| 40% | $95.72 | 32.0% |
| 50% | $102.56 | 29.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $38.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $4.5B | 11.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $660M | |
| Capital spending | $884M | |
| Debt | $2.1B | |
| Cash | $2.5B | |
| Share price | $68.37 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, PBF Energy would cost about $90.59 a share, $11.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $82.04 | $10.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $90.59 | $11.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $103.79 | $12.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.53× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
PBF Energy's latest quarter
PBF Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $12.1B (+59% year over year), operating margin 17.3%, net earnings $1.5B, operating cash flow $1.9B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is PBF Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy PBF Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($88.88 a share) would return about 35% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of PBF Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, PBF Energy would cost about $90.59 a share, $11.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.