Filing Flows › Penumbra (PEN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Penumbra (PEN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($414.63 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average). Latest signal (2026-04-01): Merger proxy (DEFM14A).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $414.63 | today's $318.95 plus 30% |
| × shares | 39.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $16.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $674M | |
| = Enterprise value | $15.8B | 75.2× EBITDA of $209M |
| Fees | $315M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $14.9B | 93% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.7B | $226M | $88.1M | $31.5M | $1.1B |
| Year 2 | $1.8B | $241M | $85.7M | $41.9M | $1.1B |
| Year 3 | $1.9B | $255M | $82.5M | $52.3M | $1.0B |
| Year 4 | $2.0B | $265M | $78.5M | $62.4M | $963M |
| Year 5 | $2.0B | $273M | $73.7M | $72.0M | $891M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 57.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $15.6B | |
| − Debt left | $891M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $14.7B | |
| Money multiple | 0.99× | on $14.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $318.95.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $350.85 | 3.6% |
| 20% | $382.74 | 1.6% |
| 30% | $414.63 | −0.2% |
| 40% | $446.53 | −1.9% |
| 50% | $478.42 | −3.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $209M | 13.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $20.1M | |
| Capital spending | $60.8M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $674M | |
| Share price | $318.95 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Penumbra would cost about $430.58 a share, $17.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $389.12 | $15.4B |
| Median | 35% | $430.58 | $17.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $462.48 | $18.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-04-01 · DEFM14A · Merger proxy (DEFM14A)
Penumbra's latest quarter
Penumbra, Q3 2026: revenue $410M (+16% year over year), operating margin 12.4%, net earnings $42.3M, operating cash flow $41.5M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Penumbra being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-04-01: Merger proxy (DEFM14A). A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Penumbra?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($414.63 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Penumbra cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Penumbra would cost about $430.58 a share, $17.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.