Filing Flows › Penguin Solutions (PENG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Penguin Solutions (PENG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($67.51 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $40.96 a share (−21% against today's $51.93). Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-04): Penguin Solutions Announces Agreement to Sell Cree LED to Transom Capital Group.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $67.51 | today's $51.93 plus 30% |
| × shares | 64.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $789M | |
| − Cash | $647M | |
| + Other claims | $16.4M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $4.5B | 20.8× EBITDA of $216M |
| Fees | $89.6M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.4B | 74% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.9B | $233M | $90.8M | $105M | $1.1B |
| Year 2 | $2.0B | $249M | $82.7M | $127M | $954M |
| Year 3 | $2.1B | $262M | $73.0M | $149M | $805M |
| Year 4 | $2.2B | $274M | $61.6M | $171M | $635M |
| Year 5 | $2.3B | $282M | $48.6M | $191M | $443M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.5B | |
| − Debt left | $443M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.21× | on $3.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $51.93; the IRR reaches 20% at $40.96 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $57.12 | 8.7% |
| 20% | $62.32 | 6.2% |
| 30% | $67.51 | 3.9% |
| 40% | $72.70 | 2.0% |
| 50% | $77.89 | 0.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $216M | 12.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $50.2M | |
| Capital spending | $11.6M | |
| Debt | $789M | |
| Cash | $647M | |
| Share price | $51.93 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Penguin Solutions would cost about $67.51 a share, $4.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $58.16 | $3.7B |
| Median | 30% | $67.51 | $4.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $68.03 | $4.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.72× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-04 · 8-K deal · Penguin Solutions Announces Agreement to Sell Cree LED to Transom Capital Group
- 2026-11-03 · 13D · SK hynix Inc. (9.1%): Other than as set forth in this Schedule 13D, the Reporting Persons do not have any present plans or proposals which relate to or would result in: (i) any acquisition by any person of additional securities of the Issuer,
- 2026-10-23 · news · Penguin Solutions gains amid takeover speculation
Penguin Solutions' latest quarter
Penguin Solutions, Q4 FY26: revenue $567M (+68% year over year), operating margin 12.3%, net earnings $93.2M, operating cash flow −$163M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Penguin Solutions being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-04: Penguin Solutions Announces Agreement to Sell Cree LED to Transom Capital Group. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Penguin Solutions?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($67.51 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $40.96 a share (−21% against today's $51.93).
What would a takeover of Penguin Solutions cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Penguin Solutions would cost about $67.51 a share, $4.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.