Filing Flows › Procter & Gamble (PG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Procter & Gamble (PG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($216.85 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $109.75 a share (−34% against today's $166.81). At $546.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.73× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $216.85 | today's $166.81 plus 30% |
| × shares | 2,407.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $522.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $38.9B | |
| − Cash | $15.4B | |
| + Other claims | $986M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $546.6B | 23.7× EBITDA of $23.0B |
| Fees | $10.9B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $126.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $430.8B | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $91.0B | $23.9B | $9.7B | $6.9B | $119.9B |
| Year 2 | $94.1B | $24.7B | $9.2B | $7.8B | $112.1B |
| Year 3 | $97.2B | $25.5B | $8.6B | $8.7B | $103.3B |
| Year 4 | $100.2B | $26.3B | $7.9B | $9.8B | $93.6B |
| Year 5 | $103.2B | $27.0B | $7.2B | $10.9B | $82.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 18.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $500.2B | |
| − Debt left | $82.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $417.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.97× | on $430.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $166.81; the IRR reaches 20% at $109.75 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $183.49 | 3.7% |
| 20% | $200.17 | 1.4% |
| 30% | $216.85 | −0.6% |
| 40% | $233.53 | −2.4% |
| 50% | $250.22 | −4.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $87.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $23.0B | 26.2% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $3.2B | |
| Capital spending | $4.6B | |
| Debt | $38.9B | |
| Cash | $15.4B | |
| Share price | $166.81 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.5% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Procter & Gamble would cost about $221.02 a share, $532.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $200.17 | $481.9B |
| Median | 32.5% | $221.02 | $532.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $253.22 | $609.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.7% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.73× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Procter & Gamble's latest quarter
Procter & Gamble, Q1 FY27: revenue $23.3B (+4% year over year), operating margin 25.5%, net earnings $4.7B, operating cash flow $5.8B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Procter & Gamble being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Procter & Gamble?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($216.85 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $109.75 a share (−34% against today's $166.81). At $546.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Procter & Gamble cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Procter & Gamble would cost about $221.02 a share, $532.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.