Filing Flows › Pagaya Technologies (PGY) › Takeover & LBO
Is Pagaya Technologies (PGY) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($25.00 a share) would return about 22% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $26.11 a share (36% against today's $19.23). Historically 5.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.0× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $25.00 | today's $19.23 plus 30% |
| × shares | 98.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $2.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $321M | |
| − Cash | $247M | |
| + Other claims | $44.2M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $2.6B | 6.5× EBITDA of $397M |
| Fees | $51.6M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.7B | 4.2× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $955M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.5B | $429M | $128M | $242M | $1.4B |
| Year 2 | $1.6B | $458M | $110M | $284M | $1.2B |
| Year 3 | $1.7B | $483M | $88.1M | $326M | $826M |
| Year 4 | $1.8B | $504M | $63.2M | $367M | $460M |
| Year 5 | $1.9B | $519M | $35.2M | $406M | $53.4M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.6B | |
| − Debt left | $53.4M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.6B | |
| Money multiple | 2.70× | on $955M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 21.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $19.23; the IRR reaches 20% at $26.11 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $21.15 | 29.0% |
| 20% | $23.08 | 25.4% |
| 30% | $25.00 | 21.9% |
| 40% | $26.92 | 18.6% |
| 50% | $28.84 | 15.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $397M | 27.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $19.2M | |
| Capital spending | $13.0M | |
| Debt | $321M | |
| Cash | $247M | |
| Share price | $19.23 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Pagaya Technologies would cost about $22.10 a share, $2.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 9.5% | $21.06 | $2.1B |
| Median | 14.9% | $22.10 | $2.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 33.6% | $25.69 | $2.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.0× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Pagaya Technologies' latest quarter
Pagaya Technologies, Q3 2026: revenue $390M (+12% year over year), operating margin 28.8%, net earnings $49.7M, operating cash flow $49.0M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Pagaya Technologies being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Pagaya Technologies?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($25.00 a share) would return about 22% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $26.11 a share (36% against today's $19.23).
What would a takeover of Pagaya Technologies cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 14.9% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 9.5% to 33.6%), according to the 17 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Pagaya Technologies would cost about $22.10 a share, $2.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.