Filing Flows › Phinia (PHIN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Phinia (PHIN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($81.80 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $65.14 a share (4% against today's $62.92). Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $81.80 | today's $62.92 plus 30% |
| × shares | 37.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.1B | |
| − Cash | $436M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.7B | 7.9× EBITDA of $465M |
| Fees | $73.8M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.4B | 5.2× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $1.4B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.8B | $491M | $184M | $149M | $2.3B |
| Year 2 | $4.0B | $515M | $172M | $175M | $2.1B |
| Year 3 | $4.2B | $538M | $159M | $201M | $1.9B |
| Year 4 | $4.3B | $557M | $143M | $227M | $1.6B |
| Year 5 | $4.5B | $574M | $126M | $253M | $1.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 6.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.7B | |
| − Debt left | $1.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.3B | |
| Money multiple | 1.68× | on $1.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 10.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $62.92; the IRR reaches 20% at $65.14 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $69.21 | 17.7% |
| 20% | $75.50 | 14.3% |
| 30% | $81.80 | 10.9% |
| 40% | $88.09 | 7.6% |
| 50% | $94.38 | 4.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $465M | 12.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $163M | |
| Capital spending | $100M | |
| Debt | $1.1B | |
| Cash | $436M | |
| Share price | $62.92 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 5.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Phinia would cost about $83.37 a share, $3.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $75.50 | $2.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $83.37 | $3.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $95.51 | $3.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Phinia's latest quarter
Phinia, Q3 2026: revenue $912M (+0.4% year over year), operating margin 9.2%, net earnings $67.0M, operating cash flow $87.0M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Phinia being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Phinia?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($81.80 a share) would return about 11% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $65.14 a share (4% against today's $62.92).
What would a takeover of Phinia cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Phinia would cost about $83.37 a share, $3.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.