Filing Flows › Palantir Technologies (PLTR) › Takeover & LBO
Is Palantir Technologies (PLTR) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($209.43 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $528.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.45× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $209.43 | today's $161.10 plus 30% |
| × shares | 2,573.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $539.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $10.6B | |
| + Other claims | $117M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $528.6B | 157.5× EBITDA of $3.4B |
| Fees | $10.6B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $18.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $520.7B | 97% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.9B | $3.6B | $1.4B | $1.8B | $16.6B |
| Year 2 | $8.4B | $3.9B | $1.3B | $2.2B | $14.4B |
| Year 3 | $8.9B | $4.1B | $1.1B | $2.5B | $11.9B |
| Year 4 | $9.2B | $4.3B | $910M | $2.9B | $9.0B |
| Year 5 | $9.5B | $4.4B | $692M | $3.2B | $5.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 120.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $527.9B | |
| − Debt left | $5.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $522.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.00× | on $520.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $161.10.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $177.21 | 3.7% |
| 20% | $193.32 | 1.8% |
| 30% | $209.43 | 0.1% |
| 40% | $225.54 | −1.5% |
| 50% | $241.65 | −2.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $7.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.4B | 46.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $29.0M | |
| Capital spending | $43.2M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $10.6B | |
| Share price | $161.10 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Palantir Technologies would cost about $209.43 a share, $539.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $180.43 | $464.4B |
| Median | 30% | $209.43 | $539.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $211.04 | $543.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.45× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Palantir Technologies' latest quarter
Palantir Technologies, Q3 2026: revenue $2.3B (+96% year over year), operating margin 46.9%, net earnings $1.1B, operating cash flow $1.2B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Palantir Technologies being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Palantir Technologies?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($209.43 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $528.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Palantir Technologies cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Palantir Technologies would cost about $209.43 a share, $539.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.