Filing Flows › Insulet (PODD) › Takeover & LBO
Is Insulet (PODD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($194.58 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $110.73 a share (−26% against today's $149.68). Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.35× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $194.58 | today's $149.68 plus 30% |
| × shares | 69.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $13.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $962M | |
| − Cash | $584M | |
| = Enterprise value | $13.9B | 20.0× EBITDA of $693M |
| Fees | $278M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $10.4B | 73% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.4B | $749M | $292M | $87.6M | $3.7B |
| Year 2 | $3.7B | $799M | $285M | $118M | $3.6B |
| Year 3 | $3.9B | $843M | $276M | $148M | $3.5B |
| Year 4 | $4.0B | $879M | $265M | $177M | $3.3B |
| Year 5 | $4.2B | $906M | $251M | $204M | $3.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $14.1B | |
| − Debt left | $3.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $11.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.06× | on $10.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $149.68; the IRR reaches 20% at $110.73 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $164.65 | 5.9% |
| 20% | $179.62 | 3.4% |
| 30% | $194.58 | 1.2% |
| 40% | $209.55 | −0.8% |
| 50% | $224.52 | −2.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $693M | 21.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $106M | |
| Capital spending | $249M | |
| Debt | $962M | |
| Cash | $584M | |
| Share price | $149.68 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Insulet would cost about $202.07 a share, $14.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $182.61 | $12.7B |
| Median | 35% | $202.07 | $14.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $217.04 | $15.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.35× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Insulet's latest quarter
Insulet, Q3 2026: revenue $842M (+19% year over year), operating margin 22.5%, net earnings $141M, operating cash flow $124M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Insulet being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Insulet?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($194.58 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $110.73 a share (−26% against today's $149.68).
What would a takeover of Insulet cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Insulet would cost about $202.07 a share, $14.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.