Filing Flows › Post Holdings (POST) › Takeover & LBO
Is Post Holdings (POST) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($107.73 a share) would return about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $65.02 a share (−22% against today's $82.87). Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.75× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $107.73 | today's $82.87 plus 30% |
| × shares | 51.3 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $7.7B | |
| − Cash | $266M | |
| + Other claims | $11.2M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $12.9B | 9.4× EBITDA of $1.4B |
| Fees | $259M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $7.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.6B | 43% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $8.9B | $1.5B | $580M | $294M | $7.3B |
| Year 2 | $9.4B | $1.5B | $557M | $357M | $6.9B |
| Year 3 | $9.9B | $1.6B | $530M | $420M | $6.5B |
| Year 4 | $10.2B | $1.7B | $498M | $482M | $6.0B |
| Year 5 | $10.5B | $1.7B | $461M | $543M | $5.5B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 8.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $14.6B | |
| − Debt left | $5.5B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $9.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.62× | on $5.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 10.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $82.87; the IRR reaches 20% at $65.02 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $91.16 | 13.9% |
| 20% | $99.44 | 11.9% |
| 30% | $107.73 | 10.2% |
| 40% | $116.02 | 8.5% |
| 50% | $124.31 | 7.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $8.4B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.4B | 16.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $570M | |
| Capital spending | $440M | |
| Debt | $7.7B | |
| Cash | $266M | |
| Share price | $82.87 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.2% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 26% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Post Holdings would cost about $109.80 a share, $5.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $99.44 | $5.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $109.80 | $5.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $125.80 | $6.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.75× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Post Holdings' latest quarter
Post Holdings, Q3 FY26: revenue $1.9B (-2% year over year), operating margin 9.7%, net earnings $63.6M, operating cash flow $213M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Post Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Post Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($107.73 a share) would return about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $65.02 a share (−22% against today's $82.87).
What would a takeover of Post Holdings cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Post Holdings would cost about $109.80 a share, $5.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.